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December 2020


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Very sad news but once this all settles down and gets under control, borders will open and fun times will return. The big question I feel is when will this happen .... 2020 - dont think so .... 2021 if we are lucky. I would like to think sooner but .... my gut says second half of 2021

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  • 3 weeks later...

I had a "virtual" meeting with a Thai tourism rep this week, and he said that their office is thinking 2nd Quarter of next year at the earliest.  The Tourism industry is pushing, but doesn't look too good that it will be earlier.

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What are the odds now for a December trip?  I think less than 50% now.  Maybe reliable vaccines will help, but they are second quarter 2021.  Until the Thai people are willing to live with the virus, like the farang nations, nothing will change.  

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8 hours ago, elitebook2 said:

What are the odds now for a December trip?  I think less than 50% now.  Maybe reliable vaccines will help, but they are second quarter 2021.  Until the Thai people are willing to live with the virus, like the farang nations, nothing will change.  

Much less than 50% unless the virus mutates into a dominant strain that is far less lethal and provides an immunity against the more lethal strains. This government is already under enough stress from both the protests and the damaged economy, so they just can't risk opening up too early and having a wave of illness and fatalities. I wouldn't count on a vaccine at all to help pry open the borders until it's proven effective worldwide in the real world and not just in the testing process.

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Not a chance. The recent outbreaks in NZ, Vietnam and Japan have spooked the Thais and made them realise how quickly things can change. A TAT contact said,after a presentation on ‘opening Phuket’, that realistically they were hoping for Qtr2 2021.


Speaking of change, not a day goes by and another For Lease/Rent sign appears in the Sukhumvit area. Businesses that thought perhaps six months closure back in March have just given up now. Very sad.

Only money to be made is in hotels getting certified as a quarantine hotel. 70-100k baht per PERSON for a 14-day stay with food included. If you’re lucky you get 1hr outdoor solitary time in an 8x4.

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I'm not in the "Not a chance" category, yet, but I think it's looking pretty slim.  Maybe I can reschedule for April, but that's a big Maybe.  I think the Thai people will be spooked for at least 6-12 months more.   

On the other hand, how long can the Thai economy survive with no international travel.  Not just tourists, but business travel and foreign investment.  Is the food supply robust?  Missing a tourist high season didn't phase them. 

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On 7/27/2020 at 7:05 PM, elitebook2 said:

I'm feeling pessimistic today about my December trip.  I just read a newspaper article saying that the 95% Thai people don't want foreigners back in the country.  Even the Prime Minister is frustrated that the media is over-hyping Covid.  No one cares about the real science, so until that changes, foreigners are not coming back to Thailand.  

I'm not sure how reliable those polls are. I don't remember where I read it, but other polls indicated that a majority of Thais actually want tourists to return. And it makes sense too. People in the tourism industry are devastated by the lockdown. They want nothing more than to return to work and start making money again.

Just asked some girls I know there too, and their impression is that most people want tourists to return. They may not be a representative sample, but I'm pretty sure that most people in the tourism industry and related industries (shopping, tours, etc.) will want tourists to return.

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